rusjelRussian Journal of Economics and LawRussian Journal of Economics and Law2782-2923"TCE "Taglimat"" Ltd.10.21202/1993-047X.12.2018.1.112-131YRMGXIrusjel-2109Research ArticleПЕРЕВОДНЫЕ СТАТЬИTRANSLATED ARTICLESВлияние характеристик ранней преступности на криминальную карьеру взрослых (на примере несовершеннолетних юношей 1958 года рождения города Филадельфия)Prediction of Adult Criminal Careers from Early Delinquency Offense Characteristics in the 1958 Philadelphia Birth CohortКаркинД. М.CarkinD. M.DMC1029@plymouth.eduТрейсиП. Е.TracyP. E.noemail@neicon.ruГосударственный университет Плимута; Массачусетский университет, г. ЛоуэллСоединённые Штаты АмерикиPlymouth State University; University of Massachusetts, LowellUnited StatesМассачусетский университет, г. ЛоуэллСоединённые Штаты АмерикиUniversity of Massachusetts, LowellUnited States201830032018121112131Copyright © Каркин Д.М., Трейси П.Е., 20182018Каркин Д.М., Трейси П.Е.Carkin D.M., Tracy P.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.rusjel.ru/jour/article/view/2109

Цель: анализ влияния характеристик ранней преступности на криминальную карьеру взрослых (на примере несовершеннолетних юношей 1958 года рождения города Филадельфия). Методы: диалектический подход к познанию социальных явлений, позволяющий проанализировать их в историческом развитии и функционировании в контексте совокупности объективных и субъективных факторов, который определил выбор следующих методов исследования: формально-логический, сравнительно-правовой, социологический. Результаты: на примере преступности среди несовершеннолетних юношей 1958 года рождения города Филадельфии авторы исследуют природу криминального поведения, феномен влияния совершения преступления на дальнейшее преступное поведение, а также на криминальный статус взрослого. Преступную карьеру принято рассматривать в целом, однако на самом деле она состоит из одного или более конкретных преступлений, а вопрос криминального поведения заслуживает внимания как таковой. Так, необходимо определить возможность использования факторов времени, вида, тяжести преступлений несовершеннолетних и особенностей судебного решения в качестве предвестников траектории криминальной карьеры взрослого. Обширный анализ специальной научной литературы показал, что исследования ранней преступной карьеры и ее связи с преступностью взрослых крайне немногочисленны.Научная новизна: в статье впервые обосновано, что пребывание в исправительном учреждении для несовершеннолетних имеет криминогенный эффект. Виды наказаний, назначаемые ювенальным судом, являются значимым предвестником преступной деятельности взрослого чем менее суровым было наказание, тем ниже уровень преступности во взрослом возрасте. Возраст преступника в момент совершения второго преступления является значимым фактором - чем младше преступник, тем выше вероятность преступной карьеры во взрослом возрасте. Причем чем младше преступник во время совершения третьего преступления, тем выше вероятность продолжения его преступной карьеры во взрослом возрасте. Поэтому, чтобы снизить количество преступлений во взрослом возрасте, необходимо воздействовать на несовершеннолетних преступников до совершения ими третьего преступления. Кроме того, в работе обосновано, что самым значимым фактором, определяющим криминальный статус взрослого, является решение суда по делам несовершеннолетних. Практическая значимость: основные положения и выводы статьи могут быть использованы в научной и педагогической деятельности при рассмотрении вопросов, связанных с влиянием характеристик ранней преступности на криминальную карьеру взрослых.

Objective: to investigate the impact of delinquency conduct on adult criminal career (by the example of delinquent boys in the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort).Methods: dialectical approach to cognition of social phenomena, allowing to analyze them in historical development and functioning in the context of the totality of objective and subjective factors, predetermined the following research methods: formal-logical, comparative-legal, and sociological.Results: by the example of delinquent boys in the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort, the authors investigate the nature of delinquency conduct, offense-by-offense, and its relationship to adult crime status. Although it is convenient to think of an offender's delinquency career as a whole, such a career actually consists of one or more specific offenses, and offense conduct can be worth studying in its own right. Thus, it is necessary to determine whether the timing, type, severity, court disposition, and so on of these juvenile offenses can be used to predict adult career pathways. An extensive review of the literature revealed that investigations of early offense conduct and its connection to adult crime are exceedingly scarce. Scientific novelty: for the first time, the research proves that the facility disposition appears to have a criminogenic effect. The juvenile court dispositions are significantly predictive of the adult paths-the less severe the disposition, the less adult crime. At the time of the second offense, age is found significant in that the younger the individual is at the time of the second offense, the greater the chances are that the individual will receive a higher score in the adult path variable. The younger the individual is at the time of the third offense, the more likely he is to score higher in the adult paths. Thus, to decrease the adult crime rates, it is necessary to work with delinquent criminals before they commit their third crime. Besides, it is substantiated that the strongest predictor of adult crime status was juvenile court dispositions. Practical significance: the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in research and teaching for the consideration of the issues related to the influence of juvenile offenses on the adult criminal career.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.