rusjelRussian Journal of Economics and LawRussian Journal of Economics and Law2782-2923"TCE "Taglimat"" Ltd.10.21202/2782-2923.2021.4.686-701MYPFWVrusjel-2178Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА И УПРАВЛЕНИЕ НАРОДНЫМ ХОЗЯЙСТВОМECONOMICS AND NATIONAL ECONOMY MANAGEMENTАнализ финансовой либерализации в Индонезии: подход SVARAnalysis of financial liberalization in Indonesia: SVAR approachhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9864-9873РаковИ. Д.RakovI. D.

Раков Иван Дмитриевич, младший научный сотрудник Центра международных финансов

eLIBRARY ID: SPIN-код: 6892-1514, AuthorID: 804230

Москва

Ivan D. Rakov, Junior Researcher of the Center for International Finance, Scientific- research Finance Institute of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation

eLIBRARY ID: SPIN-код: 6892-1514, AuthorID: 804230

Moscow

rakov@nifi.ruНаучно-исследовательский финансовый институт Министерства финансов Российской ФедерацииРоссияScientific-research Finance Institute of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian FederationRussian Federation202130122021154686701Copyright © Раков И.Д., 20212021Раков И.Д.Rakov I.D.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.rusjel.ru/jour/article/view/2178Цель

Цель: анализ влияния политики финансовой либерализации на макроэкономическую стабильность экономики Индонезии.

Методы

Методы: ретроспективный и эконометрический анализ.

Результаты

Результаты: в статье актуализируются вопросы проведения политики финансовой либерализации в Индонезии. В частности, рассмотрены этапы снятия валютных ограничений в Индонезии. При этом основное внимание уделяется финансово-экономическим кризисам, происходящим в Индонезии, в которых финансовая открытость является одной из причин ухудшения экономической ситуации внутри страны. Рассмотрены принимаемые государством меры по ужесточению трансграничных перетоков капитала в ответ на кризис. Дана характеристика сопровождающей экономической политики Индонезии в условиях финансовой открытости.

Применена эконометрическая модель SVAR по оценке влияния финансовой либерализации на макроэкономическую ситуацию страны. Она показала, что данный процесс негативно влияет на индонезийскую экономику. Но макроэкономическое состояние Индонезии зависит не только от финансовой интеграции, а от целого ряда других внутренних макроэкономических факторов, которые изменяются под воздействием национальной экономической политики.

Научная новизна

Научная новизна: в статье систематизирован опыт проведения политики финансовой либерализации в Индонезии, а также разработана эконометрическая модель SVAR, которая показывает значимость процесса финансовой интеграции для макроэкономических показателей.

Практическая значимость

Практическая значимость: рассмотренный опыт проведения финансовой либерализации в Индонезии показывает значимость валютного регулирования для развивающихся стран и риски, возникающие в ходе политики по усилению финансовой открытости. А представленная модель SVAR дает возможность для исследования влияния финансовой либерализации на макроэкономические показатели стран.

Objective

Objective: to analyze the impact of the financial liberalization policy on the macroeconomic stability of the Indonesian economy.

Methods

Methods: retrospective and econometric analysis.

Results

Results: the article updates the issues of financial liberalization policy in Indonesia. In particular, the stages of lifting currency restrictions in Indonesia are considered. The main attention is paid to the financial and economic crises taking place in Indonesia, in which financial openness is one of the reasons for the deterioration of the economic situation inside the country. The measures taken by the government to restrict the cross-border capital flows in response to the crisis are considered. The characteristic of the accompanying economic policy of Indonesia under the conditions of financial openness is given. The SVAR econometric model was applied to assess the impact of financial liberalization on the macroeconomic situation of the country. It showed that this process has a negative impact on the Indonesian economy. But the macroeconomic state of Indonesia depends not only on financial integration, but on a number of other internal macroeconomic factors that change under the influence of the national economic policy.

Scientific novelty

Scientific novelty: the article systematizes the experience of financial liberalization policy in Indonesia, and develops the SVAR econometric model, which shows the importance of the financial integration process for macroeconomic indicators.

Practical significance

Practical significance: The reviewed experience of financial liberalization in Indonesia shows the importance of currency regulation for developing countries and the risks arising in the course of policies to strengthen financial openness. The presented SVAR model provides an opportunity to study the impact of financial liberalization on the macroeconomic indicators of countries.

экономика и управление народным хозяйствомфинансовая либерализацияИндонезияфинансовый кризисфинансовая открытостьвалютные ограниченияeconomics and national economy managementFinancial liberalizationIndonesiaFinancial crisisFinancial opennessCurrency restrictionsReferencesСмыслов Д. В. Международная валютная система: тенденции эволюции // Деньги и кредит. 2013. № 10. С. 46–58.Smyslov, D. V. (2013). Progress trends in the international currency system. Den'gi i Kredit, 10, 46–58 (in Russ.).Раков И. Д. Теоретические концепции финансовой либерализации // Финансы и кредит. 2019. Т. 25, № 8 (788). С. 1933–1948. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.25.8.1933Rakov, I. D. (2019). Theoretical concepts of financial liberalization. Finance and Credit, 25, 8 (788), 1933–1948. https:// doi.org/10.24891/fc.25.8.1933Caupin V. IV/Les pays émergents face aux flux (et reflux) de capitaux // L’économie mondiale 2015. Paris: La Découverte, 2014. С. 57–72.Caupin, V. (2014). IV/Les pays émergents face aux flux (et reflux) de capitaux. In L’économie mondiale 2015 (pp. 57–72). Paris, La Découverte.Яковлев И. А., Швандар К. В. Использование режима плавающего обменного курса в странах с переходной экономикой // Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт. Финансовый журнал. 2015. № 5 (27). C. 103–112.Yakovlev, I. A., Shvandar, K. V. (2015). Using the float exchange rate regime in the countries with transitional economy. Financial Journal, 5 (27), 103–112 (in Russ.).Навой А. В. Концепция валютно-финансового регулирования национальной экономики в условиях нестабильности глобальных финансов // Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт. Финансовый журнал. 2018. № 1. С. 71–86. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2018-1-71-86Navoy, A. V. (2018). Concept of the Exchange Rate Policy and Capital Control of the National Economy in Terms of Global Finance Instability. Financial Journal, 1, 71–86. https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2018-1-71-86Goeltom M. S. et al. Capital flows in Indonesia: challenges and policy responses // Participants in the meeting. 2008. Pp. 265–287.Goeltom, M. S. et al. (2008). Capital flows in Indonesia: challenges and policy responses, Participants in the meeting, 265–287.Supit B. N. Privatization in Indonesia: One Economic Strategy to Accelerate Economic Growth / Benyamen N. Supit. Naval Postgraduate School Monterey CA, 1996. 89 p. URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10945/32123 (дата обращения: 24.05.2021).Supit, B. N. (1996). Privatization in Indonesia: One Economic Strategy to Accelerate Economic Growth, Naval Postgraduate School Monterey CA. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/32123 (access date: 24.05.2021).Soejono F., Heriyanto F. X. Privatization Method and Firm Performance: A Study of Indonesia’s State-owned Enterprises // Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen. 2018. Vol. 9, № 2. Pp. 149–158.Soejono, F., Heriyanto, F. X. (2018). Privatization Method and Firm Performance: A Study of Indonesia’s State-owned Enterprises. Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen, 9 (2), 149–158.Nahadi B., Suzuki Y. Partial privatization and performance of privatized SOES: the evidence from Indonesia // Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. 2012. Т. 3, № 14. Pp. 98–109.Nahadi, B., Suzuki, Y. (2012). Partial privatization and performance of privatized SOES: the evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 3 (14), 98–109.Sequencing capital account liberalization: lessons from the experiences in Chile, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand / C. Echeverria, M. S. M. Darbar, M. R. B. Johnston; International Monetary Fund // International Monetary Fund. 1997. № 97–157. 115 p. URL: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97157.pdf (дата обращения: 21.02.2019).Echeverria, C., Darbar, M. S. M., Johnston, M. R. B. (1997). Sequencing capital account liberalization: lessons from the experiences in Chile, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. International Monetary Fund, 97–157, 115 p. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97157.pdf (access date: 21.02.2019).Iriana R., Sjöholm F. Indonesia's economic crisis: contagion and fundamentals // The Developing Economies. 2002. Vol. 40, № 2. Pp. 135–151.Iriana, R., Sjöholm, F. (2002). Indonesia's economic crisis: contagion and fundamentals. The Developing Economies, 40 (2), 135–151.Tambunan T. T. H. The Indonesian experience with two big economic crises // Modern Economy. 2010. Vol. 1, № 03. Pp. 156–167.Tambunan T. T. H. (2010). The Indonesian experience with two big economic crises. Modern Economy, 1 (03), 156–167.Syarifuddin F. et al. Monetary policy response on exchange rate volatility in Indonesia // Journal of Contemporary Economic and Business Issues. 2014. Vol. 1, № 2. Pp. 35–54.Syarifuddin, F. et al. (2014). Monetary policy response on exchange rate volatility in Indonesia. Journal of Contemporary Economic and Business Issues, 1 (2), 35–54.Hiew L. C. Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Indonesia: Implications for Weighted Monetary Aggregates. Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, 2010. URL: http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/studies/2011-04-prHiewLC.pdf (дата обращения: 15.08.2018).Hiew, L. C. (2010). Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Indonesia: Implications for Weighted Monetary Aggregates, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak. http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/studies/2011-04-prHiewLC.pdf (access date: 15.08.2018).Francis S. Fiscal policy evolution and distributional implications: The Indonesian experience // International Development Economics Associates. 2012. URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/23b5/4b74084204ba9e5323b6eec26468b961144d.pdf (дата обращения: 25.07.2019).Francis, S. (2012). Fiscal policy evolution and distributional implications: The Indonesian experience, International Development Economics Associates. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/23b5/4b74084204ba9e5323b6eec26468b961144d.pdf (access date: 25.07.2019).Saparini H. Policy response to overcome crisis: A lesson from Indonesian case // International conference on “Re-regulating global finance in the light of the global crisis”, Beijing, China. Google Scholar. 2009. 26 p. URL: http://www.networkideas.org/ ideasact/feb09/Beijing_Conference_09/Hendri_Saparini.pdf (дата обращения: 21.02.2019).Saparini, H. Policy response to overcome crisis: A lesson from Indonesian case. International conference on “Re-regulating global finance in the light of the global crisis”, Beijing, China. http://www.networkideas.org/ideasact/feb09/Beijing_Conference_09/Hendri_Saparini.pdf (access date: 21.02.2019).S. Managing Capital Flows: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of Emerging Asian Economies / M. Kawai, M. B. Lamberte, 3. Takagi // Regulating global capital flows for long-run development/ ed. A. Bhattacharya et al. 2012. Pp. 35–46.Kawai, M., Lamberte, M. B., Takagi, S. 3. (2012). Managing Capital Flows: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of Emerging Asian Economies. In A. Bhattacharya et al. (Eds.), Regulating global capital flows for long-run development (pp. 35–46).Indonesia: A country study / ed. W. H. Frederick, R. L. Worden. Government Printing Office, 2011. 440 p. URL: http:// www.loc.gov/rr/frd/cs/pdf/CS_Indonesia.pdf (дата обращения: 21.02.2019).Frederick, W. H., Worden, R. L. (2011). Indonesia: A country study, Government Printing Office. http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/cs/pdf/CS_Indonesia.pdf (access date: 21.02.2019).Региональные финансовые механизмы и их роль в обеспечении финансовой стабильности (опыт АСЕАН) / И. А. Яковлев, Л. С. Кабир, С. И. Никулина, И. Д. Раков // Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт. Финансовый журнал. 2016. № 5 (33). C. 52–62.Yakovlev, I. A., Kabir, L. S., Nikulina, S. I., Rakov, I. D. (2016). Regional financial mechanisms and their role in providing financial stability (ASEAN experience). Financial Journal, 5 (33), 52–62 (in Russ.).Kraay A. In search of the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization / The World Bank Group. 1998. 45 p. URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/22237_CALMacroEffects_Manuscript.pdf (дата обращения: 07.03.2019).Kraay, A. (1998). In search of the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization, The World Bank Group. http:// siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/22237_CALMacroEffects_Manuscript.pdf (access date: 07.03.2019).Laurenceson J., Tang K. K. China's capital account convertibility and financial stability // Discussion Paper. 2005. № 5. 26 p. URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/eaerg/dp/0505.pdf (дата обращения: 29.10.2018).Laurenceson, J., Tang, K. K. (2005). China's capital account convertibility and financial stability. Discussion Paper, 5, 26 p. http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/eaerg/dp/0505.pdf (access date: 29.10.2018).Gamra S. B., Clévenot M. Les effets ambigus de la libéralisation financière dans les pays en développement Croissance économique ou instabilité financière? / S. B. Gamra, M. Clévenot. Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) (CEPN), 2008. 24 p. URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00323334/ (дата обращения: 04.12.2018).Gamra, S. B., Clévenot, M. (2008). Les effets ambigus de la libéralisation financière dans les pays en développement Croissance économique ou instabilité financière?, Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) (CEPN), 24 p. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00323334/ (access date: 04.12.2018).Montecino J. A. Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria? // Journal of International Economics. 2018. Т. 114. С. 80–95. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.05.005Montecino, J. A. (2018). Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?. Journal of International Economics, 114, 80–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.05.005Pepinsky T. B. Do currency crises cause capital account liberalization? // International Studies Quarterly. 2012. Т. 56, № 3. С. 1–17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00729.xPepinsky, T. B. (2012). Do currency crises cause capital account liberalization?. International Studies Quarterly, 56 (3), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00729.xCapital-flow management measures: What are they good for? / K. Forbes, M. Fratzscher, R. Straub // Journal of International Economics. 2015. Т. 96. Pp. S76–S97. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.11.004Forbes, K., Fratzscher, M., Straub, R. (2015). Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?. Journal of International Economics, 96, S76–S97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.11.004Раков И. Д. Особенности применения эконометрического моделирования при исследовании финансовой либерализации // Азимут научных исследований: экономика и управление. 2019. № 4 (29). С. 325–329. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26140/anie-2019-0804-0073Rakov, I. D. (2019). Econometric modeling application features in the investigation of financial liberalization. Azimuth of Scientific Research: Economics And Administration, 4 (29), 325–329. https://doi.org/10.26140/anie-2019-0804-0073Fairchild A. J., MacKinnon D. P. A general model for testing mediation and moderation effects // Prevention Science. 2009. Т. 10, № 2. С. 87–99.Fairchild, A. J., MacKinnon, D. P. (2009). A general model for testing mediation and moderation effects. Prevention Science, 10 (2), 87–99.Williams R. Interaction effects between continuous variables (Optional). 2015. URL: https://www3.nd.edu/~rwilliam/stats2/ l55.pdf (дата обращения: 21.03.2017).Williams, R. (2015). Interaction effects between continuous variables (Optional). https://www3.nd.edu/~rwilliam/stats2/ l55.pdf (access date: 21.03.2017).Okada K. The interaction effects of fi openness and institutions on international capital fl // Journal of Macroeconomics. 2013. Т. 35. С. 131–143. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.003Okada, K. (2013). The interaction effects of financial openness and institutions on international capital flows. Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 131–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.003Corruption, capital account liberalization, and economic growth: Theory and evidence / T. Kunieda, K. Okada, A. Shibata // International Economics. 2014. Т. 139. Pp. 80–108. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2014.03.001Kunieda, T., Okada, K., Shibata, A. (2014). Corruption, capital account liberalization, and economic growth: Theory and evidence. International Economics, 139, 80–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2014.03.001Financial reform in China: Progresses and challenges / Y. Huang, X. Wang, N. Lin. China Macroeconomic Research Center, Peking University, 2013. URL: http://workspace.unpan.org/sites/Internet/Documents/UNPAN94527.pdf (дата обращения: 24.10.2018).Huang, Y., Wang, X., Lin, N. (2013). Financial reform in China: Progresses and challenges, China Macroeconomic Research Center, Peking University. http://workspace.unpan.org/sites/Internet/Documents/UNPAN94527.pdf (access date: 24.10.2018).Baba C. et al. Effectiveness of capital controls in selected emerging markets in the 2000s // International Monetary Fund. 2011. № 11/281. 45 p. URL: https://www.imf.org/~/media/Websites/IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/_wp11281. ashx (дата обращения: 09.03.2019).Baba, C. et al. (2011). Effectiveness of capital controls in selected emerging markets in the 2000s. International Monetary Fund, 11/281, 45. https://www.imf.org/~/media/Websites/IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/_wp11281.ashx (access date: 09.03.2019).Kandil M., Trabelsi M. On capital flows and macroeconomic performance: Evidence before and after the financial crisis in Turkey // Borsa Istanbul Review. 2015. Т. 15, № 4. Pp. 249–258. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2015.09.001Kandil, M., Trabelsi, M. (2015). On capital flows and macroeconomic performance: Evidence before and after the financial crisis in Turkey. Borsa Istanbul Review, 15 (4), 249–258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2015.09.001Macro-Financial Effects of Portfolio Flows: Malaysia's Experience / T. Hwa, M. Raghavan, T. Huey // CAMA Working Paper. 2017. № 35/2017. 37 p. URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/Sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2962154 (дата обращения: 13.09.2021).Hwa, T., Raghavan, M., Huey, T. (2017). Macro-Financial Effects of Portfolio Flows: Malaysia's Experience. CAMA Working Paper, 35/2017, 37. https://papers.ssrn.com/Sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2962154 (access date: 13.09.2021).Financial Liberalization and Banking Crises: A Cross-Country Analysis / A. P. Angikand, W. Sawangngoenyuang, C. Wihlborg // International Review of Finance. 2010. Т. 10, № 2. С. 263–292. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2443.2010.01114.xAngikand, A. P., Sawangngoenyuang, W., Wihlborg, C. (2010). Financial Liberalization and Banking Crises: A Cross-Country Analysis. International Review of Finance, 10 (2), 263–292. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2443.2010.01114.xGlick R., Hutchison M. Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies // Journal of International Money and Finance. 2005. Т. 24, № 3. Pp. 387–412. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2004.11.004Glick, R., Hutchison, M. (2005). Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24 (3), 387–412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2004.11.004Ono F. H. et al. Conversibilidade da conta de capital, taxa de juros e crescimento econômico: uma avaliação empírica da proposta de plena conversibilidade do real // Revista de Economia Contemporânea. 2005. Т. 9, № 2. Pp. 231–261. DOI: https:// doi.org/10.1590/S1415-98482005000200001Ono, F. H. et al. (2005). Conversibilidade da conta de capital, taxa de juros e crescimento econômico: uma avaliação empírica da proposta de plena conversibilidade do real. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 9 (2), 231–261. https://doi.org/10.1590/ S1415-98482005000200001Lane P. R., Milesi-Ferretti G. M. International financial integration // IMF Staff Papers. 2003. Т. 50, № 1. С. 82–113. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/4149916Lane, P. R., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2003). International financial integration, IMF Staff Papers, 50 (1), 82–113. https://doi. org/10.2307/4149916Financial liberalization and economic growth in Turkey: a reexamination / G. Dinar, B. Dalgiç, P. Iyidoğan // Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2015. Т. 33, № 1. Pp. 19–43. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17065/huiibf.75983Dinar, G., Dalgiç, B., Iyidoğan, P. (2015). Financial liberalization and economic growth in Turkey: a reexamination. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 33 (1), 19–43. https://doi.org/10.17065/huiibf.75983Syamsi M. N. et al. International Trade, Financial Development, Foreign Exchange Reserve and Output in Indonesia // International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences. 2020. Т. 10, № 1. Pp. 324–333. DOI: https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARAFMS/v10-i1/7205Syamsi, M. N. et al. (2020). International Trade, Financial Development, Foreign Exchange Reserve and Output in Indonesia. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 10 (1), 324–333. https://doi. org/10.6007/IJARAFMS/v10-i1/7205Simorangkir I. The Openness And Its Impact To Indonesian Economy: A Structural Var Approach // Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. 2008. Т. 10, № 3. Pp. 223–260. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v10i3.227Simorangkir, I. (2008). The Openness And Its Impact To Indonesian Economy: A Structural Var Approach. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 10 (3), 223–260. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v10i3.227Blanchard O. J., Quah D. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances // The American Economic Review. Т. 79, № 4. Pp. 655–673. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w2737Blanchard, O. J., Quah, D. (1988). The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review, 79 (4), 655–673. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2737Huang Y., Guo F. Is currency union a feasible option in East Asia?: A multivariate structural VAR approach // Research in international business and finance. 2006. Т. 20, № 1. Pp. 77–94.Huang, Y., Guo, F. (2006). Is currency union a feasible option in East Asia?: A multivariate structural VAR approach. Research in International Business and Finance, 20 (1), 77–94.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.