rusjelRussian Journal of Economics and LawRussian Journal of Economics and Law2782-2923"TCE "Taglimat"" Ltd.10.21202/2782-2923.2025.3.572-590rusjel-2657Research ArticleРЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ И ОТРАСЛЕВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАREGIONAL AND BRANCH ECONOMICSЭконометрическая оценка эффекта переноса валютного курса на потребительские цены: есть ли снижение?Econometric estimation of the effect of transferring currency exchange rate onto consumer prices: is there a decrease?https://orcid.org/0009-0007-6137-2210ШайдуллинМ. А.ShaydullinM. A.

Шайдуллин Марат Арсэнович - студент, Институт управления, экономики и финансов. Web of Science Researcher ID: NRB-7498-2025

Казань

Marat A. Shaydullin - student, Institute of Management, Economics and Finance.

Kazan

marat.shaj@bk.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3402-1558КадочниковаЕ. И.KadochnikovaE. I.

Кадочникова Екатерина Ивановна - кандидат экономических наук, доцент, доцент кафедры экономической теории и эконометрики, Институт управления, экономики и финансов. Web of Science Researcher ID: M-4027-2013

Казань

Ekaterina I. Kadochnikova - Cand. Sci. (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory and Econometrics, Institute of Management, Economics and Finance.

Kazan

kad-ekaterina@yandex.ruКазанский (Приволжский) федеральный университетРоссияKazan (Volga region) Federal UniversityRussian Federation202509092025193572590Copyright © Шайдуллин М.А., Кадочникова Е.И., 20252025Шайдуллин М.А., Кадочникова Е.И.Shaydullin M.A., Kadochnikova E.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.rusjel.ru/jour/article/view/2657Цель

Цель: измерение краткосрочного и долгосрочного эффектов переноса валютного курса на потребительские цены в современных российских реалиях, включая анализ асимметрии эффекта.

Методы

Методы: исследование основано на данных Федеральной службы государственной статистики, Центрального банка РФ об индексе потребительских цен, обменном курсе доллара, валовом внутреннем продукте за период с 2000 по 2024 г. В исследовании использована модель авторегрессии с распределенным лагом (ARDL – autoregressive distributed lags) по типу модели коррекции ошибок (ECM).

Результаты

Результаты: показана коинтеграционная связь между индексом потребительских цен, обменным курсом, разрывом ВВП, мировым трендом потребительских цен. Обнаружено превышение краткосрочного эффекта переноса над долгосрочным, усиление краткосрочного эффекта переноса валютного курса и ослабление долгосрочного эффекта после 2020 г. В сравнении с результатами ранее выполненных исследований за прошлые периоды времени наблюдается снижение неполного эффекта переноса валютного курса на потребительские цены и сокращение его волатильности. Сделан вывод о совокупной роли прямых и косвенных механизмов переноса валютного курса в увеличении краткосрочного эффекта независимо от режима денежно-кредитной политики; о влиянии режима инфляционного таргетирования, новой конфигурации внешнеэкономических связей и ослабивших традиционные каналы переноса структурных изменений в экономике на уменьшение долгосрочного эффекта переноса после 2020 г. Показана асимметрия валютного курса в долгосрочной перспективе, когда эффект снижения цен превосходит эффект роста цен.

Научная новизна

Научная новизна: впервые для российской экономики представлена оценка эффекта переноса валютного курса и его асимметрии в условиях санкций и структурных изменений экономики после 2020 г.

Практическая значимость

Практическая значимость: представленные результаты могут быть полезными при разработке режимов денежно-кредитной политики, управлении структурой внешнеэкономических связей, разработке эффективной экономической политики в современных условиях.

Objective

Objective: to measure the short- and long-term effects of currency exchange rate transfer on consumer prices in modern Russian realities with the analysis of the effect asymmetry.

Methods

Methods: the study is based on the Federal State Statistics Agency and the Russian Central Bank data on the consumer price index, dollar exchange rate, and gross domestic product for 2000-2024. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model similar to error correction model (ECM).

Results

Results: the article shows cointegration relationship between the consumer price index, the exchange rate, the GDP gap, and the global consumer price trend. The research found excess of the short-term effect of the transfer over the long-term one, the strengthening of the short-term effect of the exchange rate transfer and the weakening of the long-term effect after 2020. In comparison with the results of previous studies over the past time periods, there is a decrease in the incomplete effect of the currency exchange rate transfer on consumer prices and a reduction in its volatility. To explain the results obtained, the author concludes that the direct and indirect mechanisms of exchange rate transfer play a combined role in increasing the short-term effect regardless of the monetary policy regime. It is shown that the inflation targeting regime, the new configuration of foreign economic relations and weakened traditional channels of economic structural changes transfer influence the reduction of the transfer long-term effect after 2020. The asymmetry of the exchange rate in the long term is proved, when the effect of lower prices exceeds the effect of rising prices.

Scientific novelty

Scientific novelty: for the first time, the article assesses the effect of currency exchange rate transfer and its asymmetry in the Russian economy under the sanctions and economic structural changes after 2020.

Practical significance

Practical significance: the presented results can be useful in developing monetary policy regimes, managing the structure of foreign economic relations, and developing effective economic policy in modern conditions.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.