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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">rusjel</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Russian Journal of Economics and Law</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Russian Journal of Economics and Law</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2782-2923</issn><publisher><publisher-name>"TCE "Taglimat"" Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21202/2782-2923.2025.4.701-722</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">rusjel-2684</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ТЕОРИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>THEORY OF ECONOMICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Долг и демократия кредиторов</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Debt and democracy of creditors</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9289-2899</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Букина</surname><given-names>И. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bukina</surname><given-names>I. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Букина Ирина Сергеевна, кандидат экономических наук, заведующая Центром макроэкономического анализа и прогнозирования, ведущий научный сотрудник</p><p>г. Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Irina S. Bukina, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Head of the Center for macroeconomic analysis and forecast, Leading Researcher</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ibukina79@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2816-1298</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ореховский</surname><given-names>П. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Orekhovskiy</surname><given-names>P. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ореховский Петр Александрович, доктор экономических наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник</p><p>г. Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Pyotr A. Orekhovskiy, Dr. Sci. (Economics), Professor, Chief Researcher</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">orekhovskypa@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт экономики Российской академии наук;&#13;
Российский государственный гуманитарный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences;&#13;
Russian State University for the Humanities</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>04</day><month>12</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>19</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>701</fpage><lpage>722</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Букина И.С., Ореховский П.А., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Букина И.С., Ореховский П.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Bukina I.S., Orekhovskiy P.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.rusjel.ru/jour/article/view/2684">https://www.rusjel.ru/jour/article/view/2684</self-uri><abstract><p>Цель: проведение эмпирической проверки гипотезы Вольфганга Штрика о трансформации «налогового государства» в «государство долгов» и оценка ее влияния на политическую стабильность на примере шести развитых демократий Европейского союза.Методы: исследование построено на основе сравнительного кейс-стади и политико-экономического анализа. Эмпирическую базу составили данные Международного валютного фонда, Всемирного банка и ОЭСР (1990–2023 гг.) по динамике валового государственного долга, налоговых доходов, процентных расходов и ставок для Великобритании, Германии, Греции, Испании, Италии и Франции. Страны были разделены на две группы для анализа: подвергшиеся долговому кризису (Греция, Испания, Италия) и сохранявшие устойчивость (Великобритания, Франция, ФРГ).Результаты: гипотеза Штрика нашла частичное подтверждение. Установлено, что связь между высоким госдолгом и политической нестабильностью наиболее выражена в Греции, Испании и Великобритании. Ключевым фактором, однако, является не абсолютный объем долга, а стоимость его обслуживания: несмотря на его рост, низкие процентные ставки в последнее десятилетие существенно снизили фискальную нагрузку. Для Италии и Франции прямая связь не выявлена, а для ФРГ гипотеза оказалась неверной. Дополнительно показано, что режим «демократии кредиторов» в его чистом виде характерен для стран с «негативным суверенитетом» (бедных и части стран со средним доходом).Научная новизна: заключается в проведении одной из первых попыток верификации концепции Штрика на конкретных макроэкономических и политических данных по развитым странам. В научный оборот вводится связь между теорией «государства долгов» и динамикой политической стабильности, а также предлагается ее расширительная трактовка через призму теории «негативного суверенитета».Практическая значимость: полученные результаты могут быть использованы для обоснования и имплементации рациональной политики государственного долга с учетом высокой вероятности новых экзогенных шоков и роста процентных ставок.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Objective: to empirically test Wolfgang Streeck’s hypothesis on the transformation of a “tax state” into a “debt state” and to assess its impact on political stability using the example of the European Union’s six developed democracies.Methods: the study uses a comparative case study and political and economic analysis. The empirical base comprises data from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the OECD (1990–2023) on the dynamics of gross government debt, tax revenues, interest expenses, and rates for the United Kingdom, Germany, Greece, Spain, Italy, and France. For analysis, the countries were divided into two groups: those that suffered from the debt crisis (Greece, Spain, Italy) and those that remained stable (Great Britain, France, Germany).Results: Streeck’s hypothesis was partially confirmed. The author found that the relationship between high government debt and political instability is most pronounced in Greece, Spain and the United Kingdom. The key factor, however, is not the absolute amount of debt, but the cost of servicing it: despite its growth, low interest rates over the past decade have significantly reduced the fiscal burden. No direct relation was found for Italy and France, while for Germany the hypothesis turned out to be incorrect. Additionally, it was shown that the regime of “creditor democracy” in its purest form is typical for the countries with “negative sovereignty” (poor and some middle-income countries).Scientific novelty: it is one of the first attempts to verify Streeck’s concept using specific macroeconomic and political data for developed countries. The author introduced the relation between the “debt state” theory and the dynamics of political stability and proposed its broad interpretation through the prism of the “negative sovereignty” theory.Practical significance: the results obtained can be used to justify and implement a rational government debt policy, taking into account the high probability of new exogenous shocks and rising interest rates.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>экономическая теория</kwd><kwd>политико-экономические дискурсы</kwd><kwd>новая политэкономия</kwd><kwd>бюджетно-налоговая политика</kwd><kwd>налоговое государство</kwd><kwd>государство долгов</kwd><kwd>негативный суверенитет</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>economic theory</kwd><kwd>political and economic discourses</kwd><kwd>new political economy</kwd><kwd>fiscal policy</kwd><kwd>tax state</kwd><kwd>debt state</kwd><kwd>negative sovereignty</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Баранов, А. 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