rusjelRussian Journal of Economics and LawRussian Journal of Economics and Law2782-2923"TCE "Taglimat"" Ltd.10.21202/2782-2923.2025.4.738-753rusjel-2686Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ТЕОРИЯTHEORY OF ECONOMICSСтруктурная трансформация экономики КНР в условиях демографического спада как условие устойчивого развитияStructural transformation of the economy of the People’s Republic of China under the demographic decline as a condition for sustainable developmenthttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8731-7702КругловаМ. С.KruglovaM. S.

Круглова Мария Семеновна, кандидат исторических наук, доцент, старший научный сотрудник

Web of Science Researcher ID: T-8171-2017 Scopus ID 57207204902

г. Москва

Maria S. Kruglova, Cand. Sci. (History), Senior Researcher

Web of Science Researcher ID: T-8171-2017 Scopus ID 57207204902

Moscow

mashakruglova999@gmail.comИнститут экономики Российской академии наукРоссияInstitute of Economics of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202504122025194738753Copyright © Круглова М.С., 20252025Круглова М.С.Kruglova M.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.rusjel.ru/jour/article/view/2686

Цель: выявление механизмов структурной трансформации экономики Китайской Народной Республики в условиях демографического спада и старения населения, а также оценка потенциала применения элементов данного опыта для экономической политики Российской Федерации, сталкивающейся со схожими вызовами.Методы: в основу исследования положен междисциплинарный подход, интегрирующий методы экономического анализа, демографии и исследований устойчивого развития. Применены системный анализ данных официальной статистики КНР и международных организаций, сравнительный анализ стратегических документов китайского руководства («Сделано в Китае 2025», «Двойная циркуляция»), а также критический обзор научной литературы.Результаты: установлено, что демографический спад выступает ключевым системным ограничением, катализирующим переход КНР от экстенсивной модели роста к инновационной. Конкретизированы стратегические направления этой трансформации: технологический апгрейд и движение вверх по глобальным цепочкам создания стоимости, масштабные инвестиции в человеческий капитал, тотальная автоматизация и развитие зеленой экономики. Выявлена противоречивость промежуточных итогов: впечатляющие успехи в создании высокотехнологичных секторов (ВИЭ, электромобили) сочетаются с сохранением системных рисков (высокая долговая нагрузка, доминирование госсектора, слабый внутренний спрос). Для России доказана целесообразность не прямого копирования китайских мер, а заимствования стратегического подхода, признающего демографический вызов императивом для долгосрочного курса на построение инновационной экономики, основанной на знаниях.Научная новизна: заключается в рассмотрении демографического фактора не как фонового условия, а как центрального детерминанта, обостряющего системные дисбалансы и определяющего выбор стратегий развития КНР. Проведен сравнительный анализ применимости китайского опыта для России с акцентом на фундаментальные различия их политико-экономических моделей.Практическая значимость: результаты исследования могут быть использованы российскими органами государственной власти при разработке долгосрочных стратегий экономического развития и демографической политики. Результаты представляют ценность для экспертного и научного сообщества, занимающегося проблемами структурных преобразований и адаптации к демографическим изменениям.

Objective: to find mechanisms of structural transformation of the Chinese economy in the context of demographic decline and population aging; to assess the potential of applying this experience to the Russian economic policy under similar challenges.Methods: The research uses the interdisciplinary approach that integrates methods of economic analysis, demography, and sustainable development research. The research also applies the systematic analysis of the official statistics of PRC and international organizations, the comparative analysis of the Chinese strategic documents (“Made in China 2025”, “Dual Circulation”), and a critical review of the scientific literature.Results: demographic decline was established to be the key systemic constraint that catalyzes the transition of China from an extensive growth model to an innovative one. The research specified strategic directions of this transformation: technological upgrade and movement up global value chains, large-scale investments in human capital, total automation and the green economy development. The inconsistency of the interim results was revealed: impressive advances in the high-tech sectors (renewable energy sources, electric vehicles) coexist with systemic risks (high debt burden, dominance of the public sector, weak domestic demand). The author proves that Russia should not directly copy Chinese measures, but borrow the strategic approach that recognizes the demographic challenge as an imperative for a long-term course towards building an innovative knowledge-based economy.Scientific novelty: the demographic factor was considered not as a background condition, but as the central determinant that exacerbates systemic imbalances and determines the choice of PRC’s development strategies. The research presents a comparative analysis of the applicability of the Chinese experience to Russia, with an emphasis on the fundamental differences between their political and economic models.Practical significance: the study results can be used by Russian public authorities in developing long-term strategies for economic development and demographic policy. The results are valuable for the expert and academic community dealing with the problems of structural transformation and adaptation to demographic changes.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.