Developed and developing countries: towards the common target with different speeds

Objective: to analyze the expected economic transformations in the 21st century in various countries of the world. Methods: abstract-logical method, methods of modeling of socio-economic self-organization, methods of long-term forecasting of world dynamics, theory of institutional matrices.

Results: based on the performed analysis, the following conclusions are made: 1) in the coming decades, a complex continuum of types, transitions, combinations and forms of economic structures will be observed in the world (with an increase in the proportion of post-industrial forms). At the same time, there will be a shift towards strengthening distributive institutions in developed countries and a shift towards strengthening market institutions in developing countries that continue the processes of economic and socio-political modernization; 2) the process of internationalization of the labor force will be intensified (due to the development of remote employment) along with the internationalization of capital; 3) a new technological wave (2030s – 2070s) will bring new resources and expand the sphere for production and services, which will support economic growth in both developed and developing countries; 4) at the same time in some areas, in particular in medicine, a very significant regulation of economic activity is inevitable, while in other areas, in particular in robotics, economic mechanisms of a market-corporate type may strengthen; 5) thus, the most important task in the coming decades is to increase the flexibility of socio-economic development of all countries of the world, namely, gaining the ability to regulate the ratio of market and distribution mechanisms depending on the spheres of activity and tasks to be solved without the pressure of ideological dogmas.

Scientific novelty: based on the historical trends analysis using the theory of institutional matrices, a forecast of economic transformations in the 21st century is made for the countries of various types and the expected features of these transformations are substantiated.

Practical significance: the proposed methods of long-term forecasting can be used in strategic planning systems in the Russian Federation.

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