INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON ECONOMY OF FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Objective: to summarize the works of the leading Russian and foreign researchers related to characteristics of various climate impacts on agriculture and forestry development.Methods: comparative analysis of predicted risks and opportunities of global climate change for forestry and agriculture. Results: the paper gives a general description of the socio-economic effects of climate change, with an important emphasis on considering the effects in the sectors of the economy most susceptible to global warming, such as forestry and agriculture. It is shown that climate change is accompanied by both favorable and adverse effects on the economy of these industries. On the one hand, the increase of the average temperatures and carbon concentration in the atmosphere promotes productivity of trees and crop yields. However, the likelihood of a prolonged drought - the most common cause of fires, disease outbreaks and growing pest populations - is increasing. An additional risk is the increase of natural disasters, which cause significant economic damage to forests and agriculture. It is revealed that in the territories of low geographical latitudes, represented mainly by developing countries, for which agriculture is the main source of economic growth, the industry will incur significant losses, which will cause even greater social tension and exacerbate the problems of hunger and poverty among the population. Further warming in the future could widen the gap between rich and poor countries unless all necessary measures are taken to adapt the economy to changing climatic conditions.Scientific novelty: the article provides a detailed description of the main consequences of global climate change for the economy of agriculture and forestry, including in the context of individual countries and regions.Practical significance: the results presented in this paper can serve as a basis for further research in assessment of risk and magnitude of the socio-economic damage caused by global warming. The findings can be used to develop mechanisms for adaptation to climate change.

экономика и управление народным хозяйством, последствия изменения климата, глобальное потепление, экономика лесного хозяйства, экономика сельского хозяйства

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