Structural transformation of the economy of the People’s Republic of China under the demographic decline as a condition for sustainable development

Objective: to find mechanisms of structural transformation of the Chinese economy in the context of demographic decline and population aging; to assess the potential of applying this experience to the Russian economic policy under similar challenges.
Methods: The research uses the interdisciplinary approach that integrates methods of economic analysis, demography, and sustainable development research. The research also applies the systematic analysis of the official statistics of PRC and international organizations, the comparative analysis of the Chinese strategic documents (“Made in China 2025”, “Dual Circulation”), and a critical review of the scientific literature.
Results: demographic decline was established to be the key systemic constraint that catalyzes the transition of China from an extensive growth model to an innovative one. The research specified strategic directions of this transformation: technological upgrade and movement up global value chains, large-scale investments in human capital, total automation and the green economy development. The inconsistency of the interim results was revealed: impressive advances in the high-tech sectors (renewable energy sources, electric vehicles) coexist with systemic risks (high debt burden, dominance of the public sector, weak domestic demand). The author proves that Russia should not directly copy Chinese measures, but borrow the strategic approach that recognizes the demographic challenge as an imperative for a long-term course towards building an innovative knowledge-based economy.
Scientific novelty: the demographic factor was considered not as a background condition, but as the central determinant that exacerbates systemic imbalances and determines the choice of PRC’s development strategies. The research presents a comparative analysis of the applicability of the Chinese experience to Russia, with an emphasis on the fundamental differences between their political and economic models.
Practical significance: the study results can be used by Russian public authorities in developing long-term strategies for economic development and demographic policy. The results are valuable for the expert and academic community dealing with the problems of structural transformation and adaptation to demographic changes.

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